Blizzards Next MMO

The next game will be a cross over between MMORPG, Adventure, and the Sims in a futuristic cyber punk world with space flight and also dark corners. Here is why:

What's next?

There was always the question what would be the next big thing. But until recently the industry was too busy creating Everquest clones with many different skins. The main movement in the MMO space was to duplicate the success of WoW. We saw very successful games by 2004 standards, which are now regarded as complete disappointments because they failed to reach WoW numbers.

Now is the time to go one step further. The blog-chatter about what's next is ramping up. More and more people are talking what could be next. Blizzard started hiring for the next game some time ago, hinting at a "different massively multiplayer experience". Clearly, the concept of monster beating with the tank-healer-DPS trinity will not be enough for the next generation of games. Repeating the same in a steam punk or wild west universe won't do.

To call it the next generation there must be something really new and different. On the other hand, Blizzard does not primarily innovate. Blizzard perfects. So, we have to look for existing trends which can be pushed to the next level by extensive polishing.

Crossover and Integration

I believe that crossover and ubiquity are the key motives. Not the ubiquity of augmented reality. That will be left for the 2025 generation. The next MMO will break out of platform restrictions and single operation models. The next generation will span multiple platforms, integrate different play styles and address diverse audiences in one game.

We already see many of these developments. CCP is very successful with EVE-Online (by 2004 standards :-). They lead the way into new territory with a console game that is separat from EVE, but still integrates with the PC game. Public character profiles outside of the game client where once a "great" feature. They combine the game world with the Web and are now taken for granted. Some publishers successfully integrated the mobile platform with PC games. Virtual goods and social games made a remarkable splash last year and are expected to explode in 2010/11. Virtual goods are a great way to address multiple platforms at once and integrate casual gaming with hard core play style. Social networks are sometimes regarded as virtual worlds. Not in the 3D sense, but in the sense, that people and all of their friends live there.

200 Million Dollar Production

There is a company that managed to perfect trends so well, that it produced the leading game in 3 genres. Blizzard also is the only company that dares to invest a lot of money into an MMO. After the perceived failures between 2005 and 2008 investors shy away from MMOs. Blizzard surely believes in its own capabilities having proven them 3 times in a row. And we are talking about a lot of money. Not the $ 60 Mio. price tag of WoW. We can expect the next generation to cost as much as a big movie production. Something like $ 200-300 Mio.

Casual and Extreme

So here is my take: Blizzard needs something that captures the masses. For the next thing they need a larger audience than WoW. A demographics like Facebook is the goal and Facebook numbers would be cool. This means normal people. Not only hardcore gamers but average people. Normal people, especially women want to live, not slay monsters. They want to live a life, tend their stuff, socialize, and care for others. Micro-managing a farm or a fish pond is currently big. Micro-managing also has been very successful with women earlier. That's the Sims aspect of the new game: housing, living, socializing. Yep, Sims online failed, but nobody knows why. This time the concept will succeed as part of something larger.

Adventure and Social

There must also be adventure. Story is an emerging trend. Blizzard will capture adventurers with better quests and story driven soloing: a Longest Journey aspect instead of the kill-ten-rats grind. Raiding and end game is and will be important. There must be dungeons. That's the easy part: the WoW aspect. Of course, it's not a sharded server. Everyone will live in the same huge universe. That's a requirement of the Facebook aspect. It is free to play with virtual items driven premium features covering casual and power gaming styles.

To capture the masses, the game will not be limited to a genre. Genre can scare off customers. It won't be pure fantasy, not SciFi, not just underworld darkness. Not Starcraft, not WoW, not Diablo. It will be a new setting. The Sims aspect needs a big bright world. The Longest Journey works well modern setting. However, the WoW aspect needs dungeons and mystery. And when you enter a space ship then you are clearly SciFi.

Cyber Punk and Monsters

Fortunately they can all be combined. Imagine a futuristic city with player housing. This is where you live. The normal game life happens in a hyper developed privileged world, surrounded by technology and lifestyle with current western and Asian street trends. Starting in this futuristic environment players would adventure in the "upper world", uncover conspiracies and safe the world (see The Longest Journey). They could easily switch to cyberspace (Otherland) for parts of the quests. My own wishful thinking would add space travel and combat a la EVE-Online or SWG, including an Elite universe.

And where there is light, there is also shadow. The underworld of the distant future is big, dark and old. It is a perfect environment for a World of Darkness where technology meets arcane arts and monsters. Vampires? no problem: a product of criminal bio engineering or uncontrolled nanotech. Or they just developed over thousands of years in kilometers deep dungeons of a planetary megalopolis. Monsters have been gengineered or imported over thousands of years. The perfect setting for an embedded RPG shooter. But "underworld" does not imply darkness. Future tech will supply lower levels with a virtual sky and enough light, if needed. It's just not as civilized as the upper world.

Genre scares off customers. The basic system will be genre free with a slight twist towards hyper modern reality. Other genres will be embedded. Genre embedding is already happening. We stopped wondering a long time ago about the gnome steampunk embedded into Tolkien-fantasy WoW.

Combat and Farming

Of course adventures in both worlds will have combat with the full range of skills, guns, quests, shooting, nano and bio weapons, field effect, casting, regeneration, healing, vicious enemies, robots, cyberspace hacking, monsters. But also character development, tending the garden, arranging player housing and meeting friends. A world where the whole family can live, do their preferred activity (dad: adventure, mom: sims, son: shooter, daughter: social) and meet for diner. A single access point for an online life accessible from different media like PC, console, mobile, browser.

EVE, Second Life, Sims, Facebook, Zynga: watch out.

Sounds too much? we are talking about a product life cycle from 2015 to 2030, about 64 core CPUs, full body gesture controlled Sims and friends who join your family in their virtual living room with ambient 3-D proximity voice and video. It will be futuristic ... and polished.

_just_guessing()

Update:
Just minutes after I posted, I saw this Massivly article in the feed reader. Massively posted 5 hours after I started writing. What a coincidence. Especially since I copied large parts of the text from my 2 years old "suggestion" to CCP. @CCP: it's not too late.

Second Life generates 15 billion minutes in web voice calls

The article says:
- "[Second Life] peak concurrent users hit 88,000"
- "At any given moment, 50,000 Second Life residents are using the voice application"
- "More than 50 percent of the [users] are using the built-in voice chat..."

Max 88 k concurrent users (including bots) means about 70 k day's average. Can 70 k users really make 50 k voice conversations at any given moment, especially if "more than 50%" but not 100% use VoIP at all?

Either the voice number is a factor 10 too high or all logged in residents have the VoIP application running. This would mean the client starts it automatically and all running VoIP apps are counted no matter if the user is talking or not. But I would be surprised if everyone is really talking into a mike all the time.

70 k average users log 2.2*10^12 seconds per year. 15 billion minutes in 18 months (lately 1 billion per month) translate into 7.2*10^11 seconds VoIP per year. Meaning: all logged in residents talk 33 % of their inworld time. Considered, that only 50% are using VoIP I conclude, that the VoIP users in SL talk 2/3 of the time even during walking, flying, teleporting, profile clicking - almost always. This is a bit much. I wonder if so many people even have a headset and wear it. And indeed: the original press release only claims "Residents are now consuming over 1 Billion minutes per month". Consuming is the keyword. They are counting squawking speakers, not talking heads. The press release continues with the bold statement "making Second Life one of the largest VoIP providers in the world". Its rather one of the largest receivers. But the press liked it. Good story.

They make many VoIP minutes, but there is probably very much noise in the air.

Disclaimer: I am only talking about the numbers. The feature is great. Long live ubiquitous ambient 3-D proximity voice.

Update: the Q1 economy report makes it even sharper. It claims: "Second Life Residents log 124 Million hours". This translates into 58.000 average users, which means that my estimate of 70.000 was a bit high.Thus, VoIP users in SL talk 80% of their inworld time instead of 66%.

_happy_voiping()

IETF MMOX WG

The ITEF is discussing to charter a working goup about MMO/Virtual World Interchange. The WG shall be called MMOX in the Applications area.

"The objective of the MMOX working group is to provide an application-layer wire protocol for Virtual Worlds to a) enable interoperability between applications, b) provide for access and exchange with other systems on the internet such as web services, e-mail and other information storage systems, c) allow network layers to recognize VW traffic and make routing decisions based on its characteristics."

The effort ist very Second Life centric. It is driven by people from Linden Lab, IBM and OpenSim. In other words, they have the Second Life glasses and try to standardize Lindens protocols and formats or something very similar.

Our approach to virtual worlds comes from a different direction. We build a web of virtual worlds based on chat protocols and small extensions. This is much leaner than the legacy laden protocols of existing 3d virtual worlds. I doubt that the RFCs would be fun to read, because the specs will be huge. It might be worth to look at a VW-interoperation protocol from the "lean" perspective.

We get a feeling for the essentials of a virtual world, if we use a chat room as communication channel for a region domain and then extend it to create a world. We should start with a small base and add features rather than starting at complex systems and protocols to find a common denominator.

But the current effort is so Second Life oriented, that I doubt they accept any other approach. I am a bit afraid, that the sheer man power of IBM at the IETF will bring us a very un-IETF-like standard for virtual worlds interoperability.

According to the frst charter proposal the WG will standardize LLSD, OGP Base, OGP Virtual World Primitive Object Formatt, OGP Authentication, OGP Teleport. The WG should be called OGP, not MMOX. I remember the IMPP WG where several early instant message companies tried to get "their" protocol standardized under the name of a general IM and Presence protocol. Long discussions were ended by re-chartering the WG to only define requirements. Later there where 2 WGs with appropriate names, which defined real protocols: SIMPLE and XMPP. That's probably a good idea also in this case.

We have many strong VW protocols and one of them tries to get the standards approval under the very general label MMOX. MMOX should create just a requirements RFC and then there will be time for real protocols. Interoperability is not really limited by the lack of standards. Currently it's the lack of interest. Until there is real interest from more than one virtual world community, there is really no need to hurry. If the SecondLife/OpenSim community wants to be interoperable with themselves, then they should just do. A MMOX requirements WG would give the time to find out if there is interest from others like Everquest, WoW, There, EVE Online, Runescape, Google Earth (?), etc.

_happy_chartering()

Layered Virtual Worlds

http://www.virtual-presence.org/news.html?Title=Overlay_Virtual_Worlds

Hier ein Kommentar zu "Layered Virtual Worlds" (englisch) auf www.virtual-presence.org.

Mal richtig "selbstreferentiell". Manche nennen es selbstreferentiell, andere nennen es Trackback. Dafür aber umso schöner mit weblin Publisher fix hergestellt. Ehrlich, wenn ich Avatare doof fände, ich würde weblin für den Publisher laufen lassen. Wenn es nicht läuft mache ich weblin sogar an, um was zu bloggen. Wer hätte das gedacht.

CCP's Chance

CCP is working on a secret project. It is assumed that they work on a new MMOG based on the World of Darkness IP. But maybe they will surprise us. The EVE ambulation project may be their way to get experience with avatar/first person technologies. CCP claims that they want to provide for more socializing but that there are no plans for more. I agree that avatars will give more socializing and might even attract gamers with other mindsets (read: women) but I doubt, that CCP has no plans beyond walking on stations.

Here comes what I wish they had in mind:

The new MMOG could be a science fiction life simulation with strong role play and melee combat elements. A kind of future Sims with RPG. If you want to reach the mainstream, then you need more socializing. People must be able to meet in person and not just as small squares on the black space background. In other words: you need avatars which people can style and a home where people can visit each other, maybe even player housing. Call it World of EVE.

The normal game life would happen in a hyper developed privileged world, surrounded by technology and lifestyle with current western and asian street trends. Starting in this futuristic environment players would adventure in the "upper world", uncover conspiracies and safe the world (see The Longest Journey). They could easily switch to cyberspace (Otherland) for parts of the quests. And where there is light, there is also shadow. The underworld of the distant future is big, dark and old. It is a perfect environment for a World of Darkness where technology meets arcane arts and monsters. Vampires? no problem: a product of criminal bio engineering or uncontrolled nanotech. Or they just developed over thousands of years in kilometres deep dungeons of a planetary megalopolis.

Of course adventures in both worlds will have combat with the full range of skills, guns, quests, shooting, nano/bio weapons, field effect, casting, regeneration, healing, vicious enemies, robots, cyberspace hacking, monsters, all you need for Anarchy Online on speed. And here we meet the old dream of EVE-Online players: melee combat in stations, not just walking (ambulation), but also fighting in hallways, conquering stations, using ground troops to throw pilots out of their (not so safe anymore) bunks, capturing command centres and infrastructure and solving quests in abandoned parts of old stations to safe the world (station). And ... what EVE-Online players do not dare to dream: landing on planets to enter a hyper developed living and adventure world.

This would be the perfect combination for CCP: a triplet of socializing/lifestyle with melee combat and seamless integration with EVE-Online. It would make EVE-Online more attractive for the mainstream and create a new world which might even sweep away SecondLife, but still leave enough room for a dark side.

CCPs Fehler

Kurz gesagt: "World of Darkness" ist ein Fehler. Er könnte CCP wieder an den Rand des Abgrunds bringen. Ich hätte da eine bessere Idee.

CCP ist die Firma hinter EVE-Online. Nach einem schwierigen Start bei dem auch noch der Publisher Pleite ging und CCP das eigene Game vom Insolvenzverwalter kaufen musste, schwimmt CCP seit einiger Zeit im Geld. Im Gegensatz zu allen anderen MOG gibt es bei EVE-Online eine kontinuierliche Steigerung der Userzahlen. Inzwischen zahlen 200.000 Abonnenten 14 $/€ im Monat. Das bedeutet ca. 30 Mio. Umsatz im Jahr. Damit kann man schon was machen.

Vier Dinge macht CCP:
1. Software: EVE-Online wird gepimpt bevor es altbacken wirken konnte. Engine und "Art" wurden komplett neu gemacht. Features werden weiterhin kontinuierlich erweitert, aber was noch bemerkenswerter ist: es kommen auch scheinbar sinnlose Features hinzu, wie das sog. "Ambulation" Projekt (Walking in Stations).
2. Marketing: CCP hat angekündigt Werbung über die bisherige Zielgruppe hinaus zu machen und neue Kundenkreise zu erschließen und dabei speziell Frauen anzusprechen, die in MOGs weniger auf Kämpfen aus sind, sondern mehr auf Socializing. Da Frauen sich noch weniger als Männer mit Raumschiffen identifizieren sondern eher mit (gestylten) Avataren, kommt hier das Ambulation Projekt ins Spiel.
3. Wachstum durch Übernahme: CCP hat White Wolf gekauft. White Wolf ist (relativ un-)bekannt für das Rollenspiel World of Darkness und andere "dark" RPGs mit starkem Storytelling Aspekt, aber weniger 3D, sondern eher Pen-and-Paper. Offiziell ein Merger zwischen den Firmen, aber: "White Wolf will be operated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of CCP. Hilmar Petursson, Chief Executive Officer of CCP, will be CEO of the combined company".
4. Produkte: White Wolf wird World of Darkness als MOG mit der EVE Engine entwickeln.

Es ist toll, dass
- EVE-Online prosperiert, weil es ein Highlight am MOG Himmel ist,
- CCP die Technik verbessert, sogar bevor das nötig wurde,
- EVE-Online auch weniger Geeks, mehr Frauen und andere normale Leute ansprechen soll.

Es ist ganz nett, dass
- man auf Stationen rumlaufen kann und endlich aus dem Schiff rauskommt,
- CCP sich verstärkt durch erfahrene Storyteller,
- CCP ein zweites MOG macht.

Aber:
In einem Interview sagt Mike Tinney von White Wolf, man wisse noch nicht ob man die World of Darkness Zielgruppe mit einem MOG ansprechen kann. Ich kann mich ja irren, aber ganz allgemein ist die Zielgruppe für Vampir/Grusel Rollenspiele bisher nicht so groß. Erst kommt Fantasy, dann lange nichts, dann SF/Endzeit, dann historisch und Gegenwart ziemlich dicht beieinander. Dann kommt in der Popularität Vampir/Grusel/"dark". Zumindest bisher. Vielleicht muss es einfach mal jemand versuchen, aber bisher scheint das Marktpotential eher begrenzt, vor allem, wenn man nicht einmal sicher ist, ob man die World of Darkness Fans rüberziehen will und kann. Ein großes MOG kostet 20-50 Mio $/€. Da sollte man schon was wissen. Darüber hinaus ist die Strategie von CCP nicht ganz stimmig, denn das Ziel Frauen und Mainstream anzusprechen passt nicht zu World of Darkness, noch weniger als zu Hard-Science-Fiction.

Soweit die Kritik.

Jetzt kommt der Vorschlag:
Das neue MOG könnte eine Art Sims-Online im Science-Fiction Skin mit starken Role-Play und Melee-Combat Elementen sein. Wenn man Frauen und den Mainstream ansprechen will, das hat CCP richtig erkannt, sollte man Socializing anbieten. Die Leute müssen sich begegnen können und sich nicht nur als kleine Quadrate auf schwarzem Grund im Scanner sehen. Mit anderen Worten: Avatare, die man stylen kann, ein Leben, das man sich einrichten kann, Stichwort: Player Housing. Sozusagen World of EVE. Das normale Game-Leben würde in einer hyperentwickelten, coolen, privilegierten Welt stattfinden, umgeben von Technik und Lifestyle, mit postmodernen jungen westlichen und asiatischen Street-Trends.

Ausgehend von so einem futuristischen Online Leben würde man Abenteuer in der Oberwelt erleben, Verschwörungen aufdecken und die Welt retten (siehe The Longest Journey). Man könnte in diesem Setting leicht zwischen realem und Cyberspace wechseln (Otherland). Und wo Licht ist, ist auch Schatten. Die Unterwelt der Ultramoderne ist groß, finster und alt. Sie ist ein perfektes Umfeld für eine Art World of Darkness in der Technologie auf archaische Künste und Monster trifft. Vampire? Kein Problem: das Produkt von kriminellem Bioengineering oder entfesselter Nanotechnologie. Oder einfach entstanden in Jahrtausenden in den kilometertiefen Kellern planetarer Megalopolen.

Natürlich sind Abenteuer in Ober- und Unterwelt mit Kämpfen verbunden, mit Skills, Waffen, Quests, Schießen, Nano-/biologische Kampfmittel, Feldwaffen, Casten, Regenerieren, Heilen, fiese Gegner, Roboter, Cyberspace-Hacking, Monster, also Anarchy-Online on Speed. Und hier kommen wir dann zurück zum alten Traum vieler EVE-Online Spieler: Melee-Combat, nämlich nicht nur rumlaufen ("Ambulation") auf Stationen, sondern kämpfen in Korridoren, Stationen besetzen, Gegner aus den Kojen werfen, Kommandozentralen erobern, in dunklen vergessenen Bereichen alter Stationen Quests erledigen und die Welt (Station) retten. Und ... was EVE-Online Spieler nicht zu träumen wagen: auf Planeten landen und in eine hypermoderne, Wohn- und Abenteuerwelt eintauchen.

Das wäre für CCP die perfekte Kombination. Ein Dreigestirn von Socializing/Lifestyle mit einem Melee-Combat MOGs und nahtlosem Übergang zu EVE-Online. Es würde EVE-Online noch attraktiver machen für den Mainstream, gleichzeitig eine neue Welt schaffen, die sogar SecondLife vom Platz fegen kann und genug Raum lassen für die dunkle Seite.

Ich hoffe, dass CCP das noch erkennt und nicht 20 Mio. in das falsche MOG steckt.

SecondLife ist total überhyped

Sonntag Abend (in Europa): 14,567 User in SecondLife, 28,085 Player in EVE-Online. Vermutlich nochmal halb so viele im chinesischen EVE-Cluster, aber wer weiss das schon. Warum macht die Bildzeitung eigentlich eine Zeitung für SecondLife und nicht für EVE? SecondLife feiert gerade den 2 millionsten User. EVE hat "nur" 170.000 User. Aber alle zahlen jeden Monat 13 $/Euro und offensichtlich sind sie 10-20 mal aktiver als SecondLife User.